//Economic Report: Home price growth skids to a 4-year low, Case-Shiller says

Economic Report: Home price growth skids to a 4-year low, Case-Shiller says

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Snow covered houses on a suburban street

The numbers: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in November compared to October and was 4.7% higher compared to a year ago. That was the slowest pace of annual growth since January 2015.

What happened: Home price growth just kept slowing as housing headwinds gathered late last year. The headline number for the Case-Shiller report covering the three months ending in November missed the Econoday consensus forecast of a 4.9% yearly increase.

See also: Existing-home sales slide to a 3-year low as housing market stumbles

Big picture: In normal times, a near-5% yearly increase for home prices would be just about right. But these are hardly normal times for the American housing market. Scant supply and oversized demand have pushed prices too high, and even with the recent cooling, it’s not clear whether there’s inventory, or financing, that will help make housing available to everyone who needs it.

In November, the metro areas with the biggest year-on-year gains were Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle. But many of the biggest losers on a monthly basis were the cities where prices had surged: Denver, San Francisco, and, yes, Seattle.

Metro area Monthly change 12-Month change
Atlanta 0.3% 6.2%
Boston 0.1% 5.6%
Charlotte 0.2% 5.5%
Chicago -0.7% 3.1%
Cleveland -0.7% 4.6%
Dallas 0.2% 4.0%
Denver -0.3% 6.2%
Detroit -0.4% 5.7%
Las Vegas 0.0% 12.0%
Los Angeles -0.3% 4.4%
Miami 0.3% 5.0%
Minneapolis -0.2% 5.8%
New York 0.4% 3.5%
Phoenix 0.3% 8.1%
Portland -0.5% 4.4%
San Diego -0.6% 3.3%
San Francisco -0.7% 5.6%
Seattle -0.7% 6.3%
Tampa 0.4% 5.7%
Washington 0.0% 2.7%

Market reaction: The 10-year Treasury note

TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.07%

 , which sets the tone for fixed-rate mortgages, has benefited from a recent round of stock market turbulence.

See also: Mortgage rates aren’t moving — where do home sales go from here?

What they’re saying: “Home prices are still rising, but more slowly than in recent months,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The pace of price increases are being dampened by declining sales of existing homes and weaker affordability. Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018. Affordability reflects higher prices and increased mortgage rates through much of last year.”

Read: The man behind Case-Shiller on why the housing index has no Houston and why that’s no problem

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