What’s driving current mortgage rates?
Average mortgage rates today reversed yesterday’s increases, falling back slightly. The only report we received today is of only moderate importance. Leading economic indicators for December, which tracks several metrics and attempts to predict the direction the economy will take in the near future, fell by -.1 percent. Last month, it increased by .2. This change is a good thing for interest rates.
|Conventional 30 yr Fixed||4.708||4.72||-0.04%|
|Conventional 15 yr Fixed||4.25||4.269||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5 yr ARM||4.313||4.927||-0.02%|
|30 year fixed FHA||4.0||4.99||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed FHA||3.75||4.701||-0.06%|
|5 year ARM FHA||4.125||5.399||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed VA||4.063||4.24||-0.06%|
|15 year fixed VA||3.875||4.189||-0.06%|
|5 year ARM VA||4.313||4.67||+0.02%|
|Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Financial data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Today’s financial data are mostly neutral or good for mortgage rates.
- Major stock indexes opened mixed but lower (slightly good for mortgage rates)
- Gold prices remain at $1,281 an ounce. (This is neutral for mortgage rates. In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower)
- Oil prices remain at $53 a barrel (neutral for mortgage rates because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation)
- The yield on ten-year Treasuries dropped 4 basis points (4/100th of 1 percent) to 2.72 percent. That’s good news for borrowers because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries
- CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index moved up 1 point to a neutral (but verging on “greedy”) 57 (out of a possible 100). The upward direction of movement is bad for rates. “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite
Rate lock recommendation
Investors and borrowers have little to go on with the government shutdown and almost no economic reporting. It appears that yesterday’s indicators represented just a blip, a small correction in the markets, and not the beginning of a long-term trend. We can exhale today.
I believe that until the President and Congress resolve the shutdown, the prospect of a recession is very real. And in that case, rates will likely drop. So if I were closing soon, I’d grab my rate today while they are down. But otherwise, I would float and take my chances.
If your closing is weeks or months away, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. Obviously, if you know rates are rising, you want to lock in as soon as possible. However, the longer your lock, the higher your upfront costs. On the flip side, if a higher rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you’ll probably want to lock in even if it costs more.
If you’re still floating, stay in close contact with your lender, and keep an eye on markets. I recommend:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- FLOAT if closing in 15 days
- FLOAT if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
This week is light on economic releases, and mortgage rates will likely move based on political happenings, such as the ongoing government shutdown, a trade war with China, and negotiations with Congress over the federal budget and the proposed border wall.
- Monday: Nothing
- Tuesday: December Existing home sales (last month 5.32 mil)
- Wednesday: Nothing
- Thursday: Leading economic indicators for December (previous month .2 percent increase)
- Friday: Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales (but only if not delayed by the government shutdown)
What causes rates to rise and fall?
Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.
For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.”) That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.
When rates fall
The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is now five percent.
- Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
- Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.
When rates rise
However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.
Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:
- $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%
The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.